^V^
Read d below , u can see how good they r n how " accurate " TA is ! >
From so called TA expert nexttrade :-
1)
Thursday, July 09, 2009
Some unpleasant news
Readers of this blog are aware that I am cautiously optimistic about the outlook of the stock market & the economy. My take is that the economy has seen the worst & we may see some growth in later part of the year or early part of next year. The stock market- being a barometer of the economy- should recover earlier and that's what we saw in the past 3-4 months. The current correction is taking place in an over-bought market and is deemed healthy.
However, there are signs that the recovery may be running into trouble. The market was taken by surprise in early July when the US' unemployment rate jumped to a 26-year high of 9.5 per cent, with another 467,000 people losing their jobs in June. Most economists now believe it will top 10 per cent before the end of the year. Some 14.7 million people are now looking for work in US.
Firstly, we shall look at the charts of crude oil prices (WTIC) & freight rates (BDI). Increased economic activities & trades will drive up BDI & WTIC. We can see that BDI started to recover in early January while WTIC recovered in early March. These were immediately followed by a recovery in DJIA in the middle of March. Now, the picture is getting cloudier- BDI has broken below its 20-day SMA & WTIC has just broken below its 50-day SMA. Are we seeing a mild slowdown or something worse?
Chart 1 : DJIA, WTIC & BDI- 18 months to July 2009 (Source: Stockcharts.com & Investment Tools)
The second thing that we must look out for is the movement of the 10-year Treasury yield (TNX). If the economy is about to pick up & is flushed with liquidity, the bond market will signal its concern about a potential rise in inflation rate by selling down Treasury bond which automatically pushed up the yield. However, bond traders will do the reverse once the economy recovery shows sign of weakening. We can see both actions in end 2002 & middle of 2003, where the TNX crossed above the 10-month SMA & then dropped below the same line (the yellow & red vertical lines). You will note that in May this year, TNX crossed above the 10-month SMA and went as high as 4%. It is now dropping back very sharply & would likely to test the 10-month SMA line at 3.0-3.1% soon. It has already broken below the strong horizontal support area of around 3.5%.
Chart 2: S&P500 & TNX- 10 years to July 2009 (Source: The Technical Take)
From this article, you may have a better understanding of the bearish factors affecting the markets today. I have appended below the links to a few articles that take a rather grim view of the current economic situation. They are:
1. 'The crisis is morphing again', by PIMCO's Mohamed El-Erian (from FT Alphaville)
2. 'The worst is yet to come', by IMF chief (from Malaysian Insider)
3. 'Expect new equity low in 2nd Half', by Societe Generale's Albert Edwards (from Zero Hedge)
4. 'We're Headed Right Back To The 1930s' by Paul Krugman (from Clusterstock)
5. Second Stimulus to be considered, from US presidential adviser Laura Tyson (from Bloomberg)
Posted by Alex Lu at 7/09/2009 11:55:00 AM
Second :-
From "Fun " Manager , Darlie A/L Backhand Seng :-
Its been more than a week since I have posted that equity markets in general looked tired. Over the past few trading days basically reinforced my views. Markets have had a brilliant run for most of the first half of 2009. Generally, to sustain a bullish run for more than two months is difficult. In a normal market, you should be thankful to get two phases of bull run in a year, with each not lasting more than 2 months. Hence one should be thankful already. To be always 100% invested in markets is to make bloody sure that you want to be caught in a downtrend. Unless you are a big long term investors of the buy and hold mentality, you should find time to reduce your equity exposure every now and then, especially when it is so plain to read well.
Markets like Malaysia is mainly a trend and momentum market, thus rewarding those who trade. Its like a house that throws a party every 6 months, why show up when no one is around? Take your trading profits and go for a holiday. Get back in when conditions are better. I do think the last quarter and the first quarter next year could shape to be good markets for equity. Till then, take a break.
Posted by Darlie A/L Backhand Seng at 8:41 AM 8 July 2009
***
From Asiachart.com :-
Thks 4 showing us another example on how “good” TA is ..see guys ? asiachart said on 12 July 09 that “ D dow failed a key support at 8250 giving 2 the probability that d bull trend has run since march has ended . ha ha…Dow closed @ 8600 today , wow..y so much different one ?
Really feel sorry 4 those who 4low asiachart.com 2 short future last week, can someone calculate 4 me how much they lose ? from 1,060 to now 1,120 ? how much ?
Is TA works ? woww Asiachart ! u r great !
Wowww... Mkt shot up > 50 points after their posting , what 's up ? DOW broke its mid term MAV50days of 8464, so how now ? confirmed bull ?
Then what about yr previous comment ? r u saying they dont work at all ?
Take another look at d attached picture, RM 3,800 for TA course ? come on kid , if they r that good , y they so desperate to sell it 2 u @ RM 3,800 ? it is just like con man telling u " hello mr saw lo, I hv one god numbers , u pay me RM3,800 , i sell it 2 to , u will definitely strike come this saturday @ 4 D magnum !
Ha ha u believe them ? U dont need 2 believe me , just use yr brain n think about it ^V^
Once again ! can someone tell me Is TA works ?
Some kids said " when mkt up , ah sam sell , when mkt down, ah sam hold 4 long term , like that sure win lah "... ha ha dudes, that shld be d way mah !..that's y I make profit most of d times , bukan ?
Still think u can catch tgoffwa @0.57 ? no volume means sure down meh ? let me put some money in yr pocket here , when u buy warrant, besides its in/out money /due date...d most important is FA of its mom not warrant himself ! if mom doesnt move up, how can d son 4low ? got it kids ? ^_-
ha ha i saw someone got hurt so much in other blog..take it ezi..take it ezi ! never too late to know u r still a kid ^_-
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